Mark Ingram probably isn’t on your radar this week. He returned from a multi-week involuntary vacation (hand) and ran for a tragic 16 yards on 10 carries in Week 7.
But those yards were gained against the Lions and they’re handing out rushing yards about as much as Uncle $crooge hands out money.
Just about every RB2 in fantasy football is getting the rock between 10-13 times per game—that’s the norm. And that’s the exact range Ingram found himself in for the three games he has played this year. With Pierre Thomas out for the next few weeks (shoulder, ribs), Ingram will get a boost in his carries, probably in the 16-20 range.
For the three games Ingram played in, he received the same or more carries than Thomas and Khiry Robinson combined. In Week 1, Thomas and Robinson had 13 combined carries, Ingram had 13. In Week 2, Thomas and Robinson had 11 carries and so did Ingram. And last week Thomas and Robinson had a combined 9 carries while Ingram had 10.
When Ingram missed Week 3, Robinson’s number was called on 18 run plays. Brees handed it off to Robinson 21 times in Week 5. And that’s where you can expect Ingram to be this week against the Packers.
And let’s talk about Green Bay. They are the only team giving up over 1,000 rushing yards this year (1,035). (Falcons are second with 964).
Teams have run the ball an average of 32.3 times per game against the Pack (third-most) and are getting a healthy 4.6 yards per carry. The collective mindset of defensive coordinators facing the Packers is to keep Rodgers off the field by utilizing the run.
Twice in seven games Green Bay has given up over 200 yards rushing. The Packers lost both of those games (Seattle and Chicago). Vegas has the Saints as a slight favorite giving the Packers 1.5 points.
Vegas also thinks the Saints and Packers aren’t going to be bashful about scoring points: they have this game set as the highest over/under at 56.5 points. Ingram will have plenty of scoring opportunities in this one.
It’s going to take guts to click Ingram into your lineup. After you do it, you’ll probably change it a few more times. But come Sunday, you need to plug Ingram in, even if it takes two hands to click the mouse to do so. It’ll be hard, but as Ingram racks up yards and plunges his way into the end zone, you can stare at your computer screen, slowly pump your fist and do that slight head nod thing you do when your team is dominating.