In the Face-Off series, I'll be taking a look at two players, comparing their ADP's and which gives you better value for your fantasy drafts in 2014.
Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts
Tony Romo – Dallas Cowboys
Andrew Luck has been the recipient of a steady stream of fantasy love this offseason. At this point, it’s bordering on Single White Female obsession in some mock drafts.
He is often ranked the No. 5 quarterback behind only Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford. His 5.05 ADP is mind-blowing.
Luck protagonists highlight the fact that the Colts brought in Hakeem Nicks in free agency. Nicks is a nice name, but his effectiveness and determination are both in severe doubt.
Nicked Up Nicks
Nicks has scored three touchdowns in the past two seasons and didn’t come close to the 1,000-yard mark in either season. Last season we witnessed a man who not only gave up consistently on most plays, but threw the towel in on a complete season.
I would list the number of lower-body injuries Nicks has played host to, but I’m afraid Nicks may have gotten up too fast off the couch and caught a hammy, so the list would be outdated. Needless to say (but I will anyway), Nicks’ body has played host to numerous injuries that have unfailingly affected his play.
Old Man Reggie
Reggie Wayne has been cleared for “football activities” but didn’t participated in OTAs. He should be fine for training camp but he’s a 35-year-old receiver coming off a hampering ACL surgery.
I have all the respect in the world for Wayne as an athlete, but it won’t be problematic for opposing defenses to keep him out of the end zone. And with his 6.7 touchdown-per-season average, that won’t be hard to do.
T.Y. Hilton should be the focal point of the receiving corps but for some reason the coaching staff doesn’t utilize him. Perhaps it’s because of the multiple bumps and bruises he endures in just about every game.
Over Hilton’s last three games (including the playoff loss to the Patriots), he had 28 receptions, 482 yards and two touchdowns. That’s a ton of potential for a guy who will be watching Wayne and Nicks from the sidelines.
Luck & His Wideouts’ ADPs
Here’s the perplexing part of Luck: he’s being drafted consistently at the beginning of the fifth round while all of his wideouts are being drafted after him. Hilton has the highest ADP at 5.09 while Wayne and Nicks are being drafted in the eighth and ninth rounds, respectively.
Only one other quarterback (Cam Newton) is being drafted before any of his pass catchers. A quarterback being drafted before any of his pass catchers is the sure sign of being overvalued.
The ADPs are perplexing because when you look at other quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Tony Romo, their wide receivers are first and second round picks. Even Terrance Williams (ADP 7.05) is being drafted ahead of Wayne and Nicks.
Since you brought up Romo, let’s take a look at him compared to Luck.
Tony Romo to the Rescue
With Luck in the early-fifth round, you’re passing up on guys like Roddy White, Michael Crabtree, Ben Tate, Vernon Davis, and Jordan Cameron. These are the guys who will serve as solid fantasy contributors.
Because when you skip a guy like Ben Tate, you’ll be forced to choose between Steven Jackson and Pierre Thomas. Or you’ll have to pass on a WR3 who will in all likelihood give you WR2 numbers (like Roddy White or Crabtree) and settle for a true WR3 like Julian Edelman.
But let’s say you wait on a quarterback and draft Romo in the late-eighth round. By grabbing Romo in the eighth, you can take a stab at guys who are loaded with potential (Terrance West, Terrance Williams, Sammy Watkins, Jordan Reed or Golden Tate) and still land a quarterback who is averaging 30 touchdowns per season over the past three years.
Romo is a lock to throw for over 4,000 yards. And with Scott Linehan calling the Cowboys’ plays this season, Romo could flirt with 5,000 yards.
With the Cowboys selecting Zack Martin with the No. 16 pick in the 2014 draft and keeping Doug Free at right tackle, the Cowboys will boast one of the stronger offensive lines this season.
Luck has thrown for 23 touchdowns in both of his NFL seasons. His offensive line is still a major concern, especially with Khaled Holmes penciled in as the current starter at center. And his weapons are average, at best.
Yet, Luck is being drafted as though he is cemented for 30+ touchdowns and 4,500 yards. He’s not. Romo is. Start acting like it.