When you select Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Terrance Williams during your fantasy football draft, you might get a few blank stares. Those people will be at a distinct disadvantage.
The key to separating yourself from other owners during the draft is finding value picks in the later rounds. Williams is one of those value picks.
Williams has an ideal setup headed into the 2014 season: solid quarterback (despite what others may think), strong running game, stout offensive line and one of the best colleagues in the game (Dez Bryant).
The most important of those factors is the offensive line.
With the Cowboys selecting Zack Martin with the No. 16 pick in the 2014 draft and keeping Doug Free at right tackle, the Cowboys will boast one of the stronger offensive lines this season.
Linehan has said that he feels the Cowboys O-line will give Dallas the opportunity to run the ball at will. The line will also give Romo much needed time to read his progressions.
Obviously, an effective running game will pay dividends to the passing game. And the offensive line is the bedrock to both succeeding.
Romo being able to read through his progressions will be vital to Williams’ success. Let’s face it, Williams will often be the second or third look on most plays, behind Bryant and Witten. And it’s not lost on me that Demarco Murray will be catching passes at a pretty steady clip, as well.
Nevertheless, Williams will get his fair share of opportunities to prove his worth in this offense. And in 2013, Williams did just that.
Williams produced a 44-736-5 stat line last season. And he did so when he was sharing time with Miles Austin.
Williams played on 679 of Dallas’ 998 offensive snaps last year (68.0%). This year, that number should increase by another 170 to 200 snaps.
No one can guarantee fantasy success for you. Anyone who says otherwise is trying to sell you something.
The most effective fantasy football analysts are simply able to identify when a player is going to have substantial opportunities to produce for their football team. Because that’s the key to succeeding at fantasy football: opportunities.
And with Williams, his opportunities (snaps) will increase by about 25 to 30 percent in 2014.
If we breakdown Williams’ snap-target-catch ratio from 2013 and project that into 2014 with a 25% increase in snaps, he should put up a stat line that is fantasy relevant.
With the increase in snaps described above, Williams’ projected 2014 numbers would be in the range of 879 snaps, 96 targets, 57 receptions, 952 yards, and 6.5 touchdowns. I see that as his floor, not his ceiling.
While those numbers may not jump out at you as being dynamic for fantasy purposes, they would’ve put Williams at the 19th spot among all wideouts.
Now ask yourself if you’d be satisfied with taking the 19th best wide receiver in the 8th round, Williams’ current ADP.